I’ve been in commercial lighting for 18 years. The industry has changed more in the last five years than in the previous fifteen. Here’s what I’m seeing and what I think it means.

Trend 1: Commoditisation of Basic LED Products

LED panels, battens, and standard highbays have become commodity products. Prices have dropped dramatically. Products that cost $200 a few years ago now sell for $60-80.

What this means for buyers: Good news for project budgets. But commodity pressure has also pushed some quality out of the market. Differentiating genuinely good products from adequate ones requires more diligence.

My advice: Don’t buy purely on price. Ask about drivers, warranty terms, and test data. The cheapest product often isn’t the best value.

Trend 2: Connected Lighting Is Mainstream

Five years ago, smart lighting controls were exotic. Now they’re expected in any serious commercial project.

DALI-2 is well-established. Bluetooth mesh (Casambi and competitors) has matured. Even entry-level LED fittings often have sensor and control options.

What this means for buyers: Controls are no longer a premium add-on; they’re part of standard specification. Budget accordingly. The conversation has shifted from “should we have controls?” to “what level of control sophistication do we need?”

My advice: Match control complexity to your management capability. Sophisticated controls you can’t operate or maintain aren’t worth the investment.

Trend 3: Focus on Human-Centric Lighting

Circadian rhythm, colour temperature tuning, and the effect of light on wellbeing—these concepts have moved from research papers to product catalogues.

Tunable white fittings (which shift colour temperature through the day) are increasingly common. Some jurisdictions are incorporating human-centric lighting into building standards.

What this means for buyers: For offices and healthcare, human-centric lighting is now a valid consideration rather than a novelty. But the science is still evolving, and some marketing claims outrun the evidence.

My advice: If wellbeing claims are important to your project, ask for specifics. What does the product actually do? What evidence supports the benefits? Don’t pay premiums for vague promises.

Trend 4: Supply Chain Normalisation (Sort Of)

The wild supply chain disruptions of 2021-2023 have eased. Lead times have shortened. Product availability has improved.

But the industry isn’t back to “normal.” Some component shortages persist. Large projects still benefit from early ordering. And pricing remains higher than pre-disruption levels.

What this means for buyers: You can plan projects with more confidence than two years ago. But buffer time for delivery, especially on large or specialised orders.

My advice: If you’ve got a specific product in mind, check availability early. Don’t assume “it’s just LED panels, they’re everywhere.”

Trend 5: Retrofit Market Maturity

The low-hanging fruit has been picked. Many commercial facilities have already done at least one round of LED retrofits.

The market is shifting toward:

• Second-generation upgrades (replacing early LEDs with better LEDs)
• Controls retrofits (adding smart capability to existing LED installations)
• More complex projects (industrial, outdoor, specialist applications)

What this means for buyers: If you haven’t retrofitted yet, you’re behind most of your peers. If you have, it might be time to look at controls or address areas you skipped first time around.

My advice: Review your existing LED installations. Technology from 2015-2018 may be significantly less efficient than current products. The upgrade economics might surprise you.

Trend 6: Integration with Building Systems

Lighting is increasingly treated as part of the building intelligence layer, not standalone infrastructure.

Integration with BMS, HVAC, access control, and security systems is more common. Lighting sensors provide occupancy data for multiple purposes. Energy data from lighting feeds into building dashboards.

What this means for buyers: For new builds and major refurbishments, consider lighting as part of the broader building technology strategy. Silos are inefficient.

My advice: For complex integration projects, involve specialists who understand the broader systems, not just lighting. Companies that work on building automation and smart systems can add value when you’re connecting multiple building technologies.

Trend 7: Sustainability Pressures

ESG requirements, Green Star targets, tenant expectations, and corporate sustainability commitments are driving lighting decisions.

It’s no longer just about energy efficiency (though that remains important). Circular economy considerations—recyclability, modular design, extended service life—are entering the conversation.

What this means for buyers: Lighting procurement increasingly needs to address sustainability questions beyond just operating energy. What’s the embodied carbon? What happens at end of life?

My advice: If sustainability is important to your organisation, ask manufacturers about their approaches. Some have comprehensive programs; others are just starting to think about it.

Trend 8: Electrician Capability Gap

Here’s something that concerns me. The pace of technology change has outstripped some of the industry’s trade capability.

LED and control systems require knowledge that wasn’t part of traditional electrical training. Some electricians have adapted brilliantly. Others are struggling.

What this means for buyers: Not every electrical contractor is equally capable of delivering sophisticated lighting projects. Commission carefully. Ask about relevant experience.

My advice: For complex projects (especially those involving controls, DALI, or integration), check contractor capabilities explicitly. A good price means nothing if the installation is botched.

What’s Coming Next?

A few things I’m watching:

DC lighting systems: Buildings with DC distribution could power LEDs more efficiently. Still niche, but gaining interest in new builds.

AI-driven lighting optimisation: Machine learning adjusting lighting based on actual usage patterns. Early days, but the capability is emerging.

Li-Fi (visible light communication): Using LED lighting to transmit data. Technically interesting but not yet commercially significant in Australia.

Tighter efficiency standards: The government continues to raise minimum requirements. Products that are acceptable today may not meet future standards.

The Takeaway

The commercial lighting industry is in good shape overall. Products are better and cheaper than ever. Controls are accessible. Rebate programs continue to function.

But the complexity has increased. Making good decisions requires more knowledge than it used to. And the consequences of poor decisions (technology lock-in, performance problems, maintenance burdens) are real.

My advice: Take your lighting projects seriously. Get proper advice when needed. Don’t just chase the lowest price.

It’s an interesting time to be in this industry.