I’ve been doing these predictions for years. Some come true. Some don’t. And occasionally something comes out of nowhere that nobody anticipated.

With that humility in mind, here’s where I think commercial lighting in Australia is heading.

The Certainties

Some trends are already in motion and will continue:

Efficiency Becomes Assumed

We’re approaching the physical limits of LED efficiency. Going from 150 lm/W to 160 lm/W is technically impressive but practically marginal.

Energy efficiency will shift from a differentiator to a baseline assumption. Every fitting will be efficient. The conversation moves elsewhere.

Controls Become Standard

Occupancy sensing, daylight dimming, and scheduling will be included in every serious commercial project. The question won’t be whether to include controls, but how sophisticated.

Basic controls (standalone sensors) will be very cheap. Sophisticated controls (networked, integrated, data-rich) will differentiate premium offerings.

Quality Differentiation Continues

As commodity LED panels flood the market, quality will remain the differentiation point. Good drivers, proper thermal management, genuine warranties—these will separate premium products from the pack.

The race to the bottom on price will continue, but facility managers who’ve been burned by cheap products will pay for quality.

The Probabilities

These trends are likely but not certain:

Human-Centric Lighting Goes Mainstream

Tunable white and circadian-aligned lighting have been “emerging” for years. I think 2026-2028 is when it actually goes mainstream, driven by:

• Accumulated research evidence
• Product maturity and price reduction
• Wellness focus in workplace design
• Green Star and WELL Building Standard influence

It won’t be in every office, but it will move from novelty to legitimate specification option.

DC Distribution Gains Ground

Buildings powered by DC rather than AC make sense for LED lighting (which runs on DC internally), solar, and batteries. Several pilot projects are underway.

The technology works. The challenge is industry infrastructure—standards, products, installer training. I expect progress but not revolution in the next few years.

Li-Fi Remains Niche

Using LED lighting to transmit data (visible light communication) has technical appeal. But WiFi, 5G, and improving wireless technologies are good enough for most applications.

Li-Fi will find specific niches (high-security environments, places where radio is problematic) but won’t replace conventional wireless for general use.

The Possibilities

These could happen but are less certain:

AI-Optimised Lighting

Machine learning applied to lighting control—learning occupancy patterns, predicting needs, optimising energy use automatically.

The pieces exist. Some proprietary platforms already have elements of this. But widespread deployment requires:

• Sufficient data collection infrastructure
• Proven value cases
• Trust in automated decision-making

For organisations already investing in intelligent building systems, this is a natural extension. Companies working on AI and building automation are building these capabilities. But for most facilities, simple scheduled controls will remain sufficient.

Circular Economy Pressure

Increasingly, questions will be asked about LED end-of-life:

• Can fittings be disassembled and recycled?
• What’s the embodied carbon?
• Can drivers be replaced separately from LED modules?
• What happens to failed products?

Regulatory or market pressure could drive design changes toward serviceability and recyclability. Some European manufacturers are already moving this direction.

Grid-Interactive Lighting

As electricity markets evolve, loads that can respond to grid signals become valuable. Lighting is ideal—it can dim temporarily without major consequences.

Demand response programs exist but haven’t heavily involved lighting yet. That could change as:

• Smart meters become universal
• Time-of-use pricing becomes more aggressive
• Grid stability challenges increase

The Wild Cards

Some things could disrupt our assumptions entirely:

New Light Source Technology

LED isn’t the end of lighting technology evolution. Laser-excited phosphors, OLEDs, quantum dots—research continues.

A breakthrough that fundamentally outperforms LED would change everything. I don’t expect this in the near term, but technology can surprise.

Energy Price Shocks

Dramatic energy price increases would accelerate efficiency investment. Dramatic decreases would slow it.

Australia’s energy market is complex and somewhat unpredictable. A significant price shift in either direction would affect lighting investment timing.

Regulatory Interventions

Government decisions could accelerate or redirect trends:

• Mandatory minimum efficiency standards (already happening, could tighten)
• Changes to rebate schemes (expansion, contraction, or redesign)
• Carbon pricing affecting embedded carbon in products
• Building code changes

Policy isn’t predictable. But it has significant effects on our industry.

What This Means for Practitioners

If these trends play out:

For electricians: Controls expertise becomes essential. Basic LED installation is commoditised; value comes from system integration.

For facility managers: Lighting decisions become part of broader building technology strategy. Integration and data matter more.

For suppliers: Quality differentiation intensifies. The middle of the market (neither premium nor bargain) gets squeezed.

For consultants: Design work shifts from basic compliance to performance optimisation and integration.

My Personal View

After 18 years in commercial lighting, I’m optimistic about the industry’s direction.

We’re providing better light quality than ever before. Energy efficiency is dramatically improved. Technology enables things we couldn’t do a decade ago.

The challenges are real—market commoditisation, capability gaps, circular economy questions—but they’re manageable.

What I hope we don’t lose is attention to fundamentals. The best controls system doesn’t help if the basic lighting design is wrong. The most efficient fitting fails if it’s installed poorly.

Technology changes. Good lighting principles don’t.

However the future unfolds, getting the basics right will remain the foundation.

Final Thoughts

This marks one year since I started writing regularly about commercial LED lighting for this site. It’s been an interesting exercise—forcing myself to articulate things I know intuitively, researching topics I was fuzzy on, and hopefully helping readers along the way.

The industry will keep evolving. I’ll keep watching, working, and sharing what I learn.

Thanks for reading.

James Thornton has been working in commercial lighting for 18 years. He’s based in Australia and works with electricians and facility managers on LED retrofit projects.